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Stock Market History Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 10 Bear Market Anniversary Part 3

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Stock Market Trading Strategy – Stock Market Earnings Plays

Trading on the stock markets is a risky business, it’s even more risky when you deal with options and to cap it all off, using simple options when you play earnings is almost like playing in a casino. You don’t have a 50/50 chance but there are techniques you can use to help your chances.

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Here are my top 5 tips for earnings plays…

1) Determine the relation between the call volatility and put volatility for the current strike and next strike.

High volume and high call volatility is indicative that people are buying contracts for a move to the upside, likewise high volume and low volatility implies people are selling contracts and the stock is likely to go down. This isn’t 100% but it’s one more arrow in your quiver in nailing an earnings play.

2) Look at the institutional block trades in the previous 5 days and ascertain whether the ratio is on the buy side or sell side. This normally gives an underlying clue to what they are doing, the current stock price is often manipulation to hide this

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3) Do not buy out-of-the-money calls or puts on a stock if the implied volatility is very high and historically the stock doesn’t move very much. You are really limiting your chances of making big money by not heeding this. You will do better to buy 1 contract in the money than 10 contracts out of the money more often than not.

4) Never put all your capital on 1 earnings trade no matter how tempting. You need to stay in the game. Nobody can get earnings plays right 100% of the time but if you can get a few of them right you can make anywhere between 100-5000% on a single trade. If you get it wrong, you may as well of set fire to your money. Hedge your trades, never put it all on one-side or the other, use 70-80% on the direction you think it will go and 20-30% on the downside.

5) Find stocks that historically move big and take advantage of setups by the market makers in the week or two prior to earnings, sometimes they force stocks down or up so they can either load up or sell of stock before the herd arrives.

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While you are here …

NYSE Liffe U.S. Completes Sale of Ownership Stake to Leading Market Participants
NEW YORK—-NYSE Euronext today announced that it sold a significant minority ownership stake in its U.S. futures exchange, NYSE Liffe U.S., to six leading firms and liquidity providers: Citadel Securities, DRW Ventures LLC , GETCO, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS.

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